Image Source: France24
Bolivia is approaching elections that could lead to significant political changes, including the defeat of the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party after two decades in power, the decline of former President Evo Morales, and the beginning of a new political cycle with a liberal orientation.
The general elections, set for August 17, present a new political landscape for Bolivians. Morales will not appear on the ballot, and MAS could lose its legal status if it fails to reach the 3% vote threshold required by law. This comes after the party secured several past victories with more than 50% of the vote.
With this election, Bolivia could join other countries in the region that have recently shifted toward conservative leadership following left-leaning administrations, such as Ecuador under Daniel Noboa and Argentina under Javier Milei. Analysts speculate that liberal candidates could also win in upcoming elections in Colombia, Chile, and Brazil. In Peru, where elections are expected next year after President Dina Boluarte’s term, a candidate from her same political leaning may take office. These developments are seen as part of a broader rightward shift across South America.
For the first time, polls in Bolivia suggest that two opposition figures—right-wing leaders Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge Quiroga—could advance to a runoff.
Two key factors are driving the political shift. The first is the country’s ongoing economic crisis, characterized by a shortage of U.S. dollars, fuel scarcity, and inflation. These issues are largely attributed to Morales’s three presidential terms, from 2006 to 2019, and the administration of current President Luis Arce, who previously served as Morales’s Minister of Economy and was once credited as the architect of Bolivia’s so-called “economic miracle.”
From the mid-2000s, Bolivia experienced more than a decade of economic growth driven by high commodity prices, particularly natural gas exports to Brazil and Argentina. However, the government failed to invest in new exploration projects. As a result, Bolivia now imports most of its fuel, has stopped exporting gas to Argentina, and sends only limited volumes to Brazil. Government revenue from gas exports has declined from $5.5 billion a decade ago to less than $1.6 billion in 2024.
Once a net exporter of hydrocarbons, Bolivia has become a net importer and may even begin importing natural gas from Argentina—the same country that once relied on Bolivian exports.
The second factor is internal division within MAS, which has fractured into three competing presidential campaigns. The conflict escalated after Arce assumed the presidency following his 2020 electoral victory. Shortly thereafter, Morales began publicly pressuring Arce to enact specific laws and dismiss certain ministers. Arce resisted the interference and pursued his own policies, fueling tensions with Morales.
The confrontation deepened over time. Arce, through the country’s judicial system—widely considered subordinate to the executive—moved to strip Morales of control over the MAS party. The courts later ruled that a person cannot serve more than two presidential terms, effectively blocking Morales from seeking office again.
Recent polling indicates that most Bolivians now prioritize resolving economic issues, a development that poses challenges for MAS.
Regardless of the election outcome, the next administration will face difficult economic reforms. These include reducing a fiscal deficit that has hovered around 10% for years, increasing domestic fuel prices—potentially by as much as threefold—and negotiating with international institutions like the International Monetary Fund to obtain the foreign currency needed to stabilize external trade. Governing will be especially difficult for the opposition if it takes power after two decades of MAS rule, amid a worsening national crisis.
Nevertheless, opportunities for economic improvement are still present. A prime example is in critical minerals. Considered part of the “lithium triangle,” Bolivia’s Salar de Uyuni contains the largest known lithium deposit in the world (around 21 million tonnes), but the country lags significantly in production capacity compared to its neighbors Argentina and Chile—due to the wrong decisions made by the Morales and Arce governments. Amid surging demand for lithium globally, if the president chooses to prioritize development in the critical minerals sector and works to attract foreign direct investment, the country could experience an economic boost, a potential $5 billion increase to its GDP.
Bolivia’s political environment may be facing a significant transition following these elections. No matter who is leading the country, the development that happens during the next presidential term has the potential to determine the country’s economic situation for years to come.
Raúl Peñaranda U. is a Bolivian journalist, editor of the news website Brújula Digital, and member of Global Americans’ International Advisory Committee. He received the Maria Moors Cabot Award from Columbia University and studied at Harvard.
