As the ‘unipolar moment’ comes to an end, American policymakers need to understand that a profound recalibration of their strategic approach to Brazil will be required.
After the Cold War, Cuba and China developed a strong and comprehensive alliance. Today, their collaboration is two-fold. Firstly, the economically-dependent Cuba helps China advance its myriad of interests in Latin America and the Caribbean. Secondly, the alliance meets China’s strategic needs in two broad areas: military-intelligence and biotechnology/neurosciences.
Russia underwent considerable political upheaval in late June 2023 as the Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group briefly threatened President Vladimir Putin’s hold on power… Russian relations between Russia and Latin America are a marriage of convenience. Both sides need and want a diversified set of trade relations, share an interest in advancing some type of multipolar global order, and have a complicated relationship with the United States.
China’s expanding presence, particularly in South America, raises concerns as China strengthens ties and influence through financial dependence, investments in critical minerals, vaccine diplomacy (especially during the COVID-19 pandemic), and cultural propaganda. By strategically increasing its involvement, China could hinder the United States’ ability to project influence in the region.
In a global economy shaped by inflationary trends, energy shortages, and market instability, Lula’s domestic success will depend to a significant degree on his international achievements. While Bolsonaro obscured the relevance of country in the global arena, Lula expanded Brazil’s presence in the early 2000s by enlarging the list of economic partner and diversifying strategic partnerships, particularly in the global South.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro introduced a new element of political risk into investment decision-making for institutional investors and other funds. The myriad of social reforms the government seeks to pass… have made Colombia too risky for some investors. However, while traditional investors are put off, other investors—including those with questionable practices in their home countries and with a greater appetite for risk—now see Colombia as a more attractive destination for their capital, as it can bring along high rewards.
Today, the impact of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and its ongoing military activities against Ukraine’s population and infrastructure to occupy the country is consistent with the relationship Latin America has had with Europe historically. The effects flowing from that interdependence have been significant and multifaceted against a backdrop of a region-making an effort to distance itself from them.
With distinct objectives, Brazil and Mexico are increasingly open to engagement with China, which is happy to oblige in partnership with both economies.
Of special relevance in the Latin American context, Brazil, the largest nation and economy of the continent, and a country that historically managed well to sustain a course of largely autonomous but close relations with the hemispheric hegemon, finds itself today in an especially challenging position.
The original Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) of the Cold War—which still exists, but is truly irrelevant these days—was born in a very different era, one marked by European decolonization and newly emerging, independent states.
