Explaining and Predicting: The Israel-Hamas War’s Impact in Latin America
This Explainer addresses how the conflict has affected Jewish and Palestinian diasporas, how governments have reacted, and what are the geopolitical ramifications.
This Explainer addresses how the conflict has affected Jewish and Palestinian diasporas, how governments have reacted, and what are the geopolitical ramifications.
As the violence spirals out of control, we analyze the implications for Ecuador, its government, and narco-trafficking across the region.
This power grab will likely gut the Mexican research and development capacity it seeks to protect—politicizing research doesn’t exactly have a stellar track record of success, especially when paired with cuts to already underfunded research budgets.
Until Mexico reduces the risk of cargo truck hijacking, the country is likely to miss out on billions of dollars of potential new foreign investment.
Petro’s relevance is in decline and his relations with incoming governments far and near will be complicated.
The world should not dismiss aggression as impossible. Deterrence against a low-probability threat is cheaper than responding once aggression has begun.
Though the payoff may not be immediate, U.S. policymakers and the international community should continue to support measures, such as the recent sanctions-relief policy, that increase the odds of fostering Maduro’s worst fear: division and uncertainty within the regime.
More must be done if near-shoring is to reach its potential to become a new glue of inter-American relations. Both the Latin American and Caribbean governments grouped in APEP, and the United States, must marshal the political will and financial resources to seize this moment of opportunity in regional development.
The lessons from Guatemala echo loudly: even if free and fair elections are held, a transition of power is not a straightforward process. The international community’s role in facilitating an effective transition in Venezuela becomes paramount.
As the ‘unipolar moment’ comes to an end, American policymakers need to understand that a profound recalibration of their strategic approach to Brazil will be required.