Image Source: Financial Times.
Last week, the world watched as an assassination attempt was made on former U.S. President and current Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. Last year, protesters in Brazil attacked the country’s Congress, and over the past year, riot police have clashed with college students across American campuses. The world appears more polarized than ever, with increasing extremes and violence. Generation Z (those aged 12-28), the next generation of voters, is inheriting this intensely polarized political climate.
Gen Z is coming of age during an era of unprecedented challenges and novel social dynamics. They had hoped to inherit a strong economy, record-low unemployment, and become the most educated generation yet. However, Covid changed everything. The pandemic impacted their academic and career aspirations, caused them to miss key milestones like graduations or first years of college, and worsened mental health issues. Since then, the downward spiral hasn’t stopped. Wars rage around the globe, housing crises deepen, mental health issues continue to escalate, mass school shootings persist, and women’s and other minority rights are under threat. Looming over it all is the specter of climate change.
Given these overwhelming issues, it’s no surprise that many in Gen Z feel hopeless and disillusioned about the future, a sentiment that often translates into dissatisfaction with those in positions of power. Anyone offering a different approach, something disparate from the norm, even radical, can become more appealing. This may help explain the shift away from traditional centrist parties toward more extreme ideologies and populist leaders.
Gen Z in Europe and the U.S.
The recent elections for the European Parliament resulted in a notable surge in support for right-wing parties across the region. Historically supported by older voters, these parties are now gaining traction among Gen Z, who have become disillusioned with the traditional parties in Europe. By addressing issues that have come to significantly impact the young generation, such as the housing crisis and lack of employment opportunities, and effectively utilizing social media, these parties are capturing the Gen Z vote.
While they may not have won France’s snap elections, in the EU parliamentary elections the far-right National Rally garnered around 30 percent of youth support. The party connected effectively with young voters by appointing 28-year-old Jordan Bardella as president, a Gen Z member and social media sensation with 1.6 million TikTok followers. In Germany, 14.5 percent of the “Youth of Germany” backed the right-wing populist and Eurosceptic Alternative for Germany (AfD), a significant increase from 2022 when the party had only 5.7 percent youth support and young people preferred the Greens. Portugal’s far-right party Chega has also performed well with Gen Z in the country’s general elections, as the youth tend to favor “new” parties over well-established ones. Chega secured 18 percent of the total votes, with one in four 18-34-year-olds casting a ballot for the party. And in the Netherlands, the Party for Freedom, a far-right, anti-Islam, and anti-immigrant party, garnered significant votes by linking the housing crisis, which affects many young people, to immigration. The election resulted in the country’s most right-wing Cabinet in recent history.
As in Europe, Gen Z in the United States is increasingly disillusioned with the traditional parties. As the presidential elections approach, numerous studies indicate that Gen Z is dissatisfied with both candidate options. Although Gen Z is among the most left-leaning segments of the electorate, recent polling shows them favoring President Biden by only a slim margin. Biden, who enjoyed strong support from young voters in 2020, now struggles to maintain their backing, with only 35 percent of Gen Z approving of his performance. Biden’s advantage with young voters has narrowed significantly, from a 20-point lead in 2020 to just a 6-point margin with Gen Z and Millennials this year. This disillusionment arises from various factors, including dissatisfaction with the economy, Biden’s advanced age, his climate policies, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.
While there is some evidence to suggest that young Americans more broadly are shifting to the right, the most prominent increase is seen in young male voters turning to Donald Trump. At the same time, many young voters are considering alternatives to the two-party system, with some exploring third-party candidates and others contemplating abstaining from voting altogether.
Gen Z in Latin America
We are also seeing Gen Z in Latin America reshape the political landscape, moving away from traditional policies toward more extreme ideologies. This trend is evident in the recent electoral successes of candidates at both ends of the political spectrum.
In Argentina, the rise of Javier Milei to the presidency exemplifies this shift. Milei, a far-right libertarian, capitalized on young Argentines’ frustrations with severe economic hardships. With inflation rates soaring over 100 percent and persistent economic instability, Milei’s radical proposals, such as abolishing the central bank and dollarizing the economy, resonated with voters desperate for change. His anti-establishment rhetoric particularly appealed to young men disillusioned with the status quo.
Conversely, Chile has moved towards the left with the election of leftist President Gabriel Boric. Boric, a former student protest leader, became the youngest president in Chile’s history, gaining substantial support from young voters. Electoral analysis from Decide Chile showed a clear generational divide in voter support. Only 22 percent of right-wing candidate José Antonio Kast’s voters were under 30, while his support increased with voter age. In contrast, Boric received the most substantial support from voters under 30, with just 7 percent of his voters being over 70. This generational split highlights the differing priorities and political leanings between younger and older voters in Chile. Boric’s platform, focusing on social reforms, addressing income inequality, and expanding social welfare programs, resonated with Chilean youth. The appeal of Boric’s progressive policies is rooted in the social discontent that led to massive protests in 2019, demanding greater economic equity and political reforms. This leftward shift underscores the increasing willingness of young voters to embrace radical solutions to systemic issues.
Traditional political parties across Latin America are losing credibility among younger voters, seen as corrupt and out of touch. This growing disillusionment drives Gen Z to seek alternatives outside the traditional spectrum, supporting candidates who promise radical change. Traditional parties must adapt to the evolving priorities and concerns of the younger electorate or risk further marginalization.
Trends and Takeaways
One critical trend is the significant increase in young men voting for far-right parties worldwide. In Europe, far-right support among young men is evident in parties like AfD, Portugal’s Chega, and others. In Latin America, young male voters likely played a pivotal role in catapulting Javier Milei into power, and in the U.S., more young men appear to be leaning towards Trump.
This gender gap sets Gen Z apart from previous generations. Typically, generations tend to move as cohesive units in terms of politics and ideology, sharing formative experiences and social spaces. However, recent reports indicate that Gen Z is hyper-progressive on some issues but surprisingly conservative on others. This divergence is primarily driven by a significant gender split among today’s under-thirties: young women are more likely to be in the progressive camp, while young men lean toward conservatism. Essentially, Gen Z represents two distinct generational ideologies, not one.
The key takeaway is that, unlike previous generations, Gen Z is a polarized generation without strong party affiliations, making it an attractive target for extreme, anti-establishment candidates. In the U.S., many identify as independents due to dissatisfaction with the two-party system. The implications of the gendered divide are significant, likely deepening polarization and making it more difficult for future politicians to reach consensus on key issues. On the issues, Gen Z may moderate its views in time, but if not, its polarized approach could complicate efforts to address critical challenges effectively.
Carolina Hohagen and Juan Diego Solis de Ovando are research interns at Global Americans.
Next Generation Commentary is a Global Americans series offering fresh insights from young analysts on the Americas, including our talented staff and interns.
