Source: Senado de la Nación Argentina
Recent global elections have offered some unexpected outcomes, including Javier Milei’s significant win in Argentina, capturing 55.69 percent of the votes. Known for his libertarian and anarcho-capitalist views, Milei’s personality has strongly dominated public conversations. Milei has made headlines for actions like cloning his dog and naming his pets after notable conservative American economists. His radical economic proposals, which include abolishing the Central Bank, privatizing state companies, and dollarizing the economy, as well as his provocative speeches, such as labeling the state a criminal organization and branding the Argentine Pope a “filthy leftist,” have caught the media and political analysts’ attention. His chainsaw-waving performance to symbolize government downsizing, along with antiestablishment rhetoric have not gone unnoticed.
Leaders’ personalities and their effects in shaping decision-making processes have been the focus of a relevant strand of research in International Relations. Decades of work have demonstrated that the way leaders perceive the world, and their individual traits can help explain their behaviors when in positions of power. The aim of this piece is to apply the analytical tools provided by this body of research to analyze Milei’s personality and leadership style, making predictions based on these theoretical premises.
The Leadership Trait Analysis framework by Prof. Margaret Hermann proposes that leaders’ personalities are central in shaping their decisions in foreign policy matters. She suggests that seven central traits can elucidate leaders’ behaviors. The analysis rests on the premise that leaders’ personalities can be accurately assessed by analyzing what they say. The underlying logic is that the way leaders communicate and their preference for certain words over others can reveal their personal characteristics.
Based on this framework, and to avoid speechwriter bias, I analyzed a set of interviews given by Milei during his campaign, before being elected as President of Argentina, using Profiler Plus, a content analysis software specifically developed for this assessment. The corpus, comprising 25,367 words, provides a reliable profile and scores that can be compared with a sample of 130 world leaders.
What Type of Leader is Milei?
It is relevant to note that Milei’s overall profile differs substantially from other world leaders, with 71 percent of his traits scoring higher or lower than the average. Milei’s profile reflects a highly conceptually complex leader, extremely distrustful, and with a strong belief in his ability to control events. He also exhibits a low need for power, a relatively low in-group bias, and average task orientation and self-confidence compared to other world leaders.
How Does Milei’s Personality Reflect in His Decision-Making Abilities?
Leaders who, like Milei, believe they control global events tend to be more engaged in policymaking. They prefer to directly oversee decisions and their execution to ensure outcomes align with their expectations. Such leaders often monitor others’ work closely and are reluctant to delegate significant responsibilities. Milei’s high perception of control, coupled with his low need for power compared to other leaders, indicates someone willing to challenge contextual constraints. However, they may struggle to influence and manipulate people effectively because they tend to be overly direct and open in their use of power, sometimes unintentionally.
Highly conceptually complex leaders are characterized by a highly analytical cognitive style. They are adept at understanding complex issues and appreciating subtleties in different situations. High complexity is often associated with a higher tolerance for ambiguity and uncertainty, allowing these leaders to function effectively in complex and uncertain environments without needing clear-cut answers. While high scores on this trait have been linked to creative thinking, such leaders can sometimes over-analyze situations or become indecisive.
His profile also indicates a leader open to incoming information, reflected in a practical approach to decision-making and a tendency to handle issues and events on a case-by-case basis, considering each situation’s specific context. He is capable of focusing on both tasks and relationships.
Highly distrustful leaders with relatively low in-group bias, like Milei, are often suspicious of others, especially competitors or those opposing their ideologies, assuming ulterior motives behind their actions. This distrust may stem from a belief in a zero-sum world, where one’s gain is another’s loss, prompting constant vigilance and hypersensitivity to criticism or perceived threats to their authority. This characteristic, coupled with relatively low in-group bias, reflects a leader who seizes opportunities while remaining vigilant.
What Can We Expect From Milei’s Foreign Policy Behavior?
From this profile, we can expect Milei to actively attempt to reshape Argentina’s position globally in line with his interests, sometimes against environmental constraints, potentially leading to significant changes in Argentina’s foreign policy. Due to his difficulties in using power persuasively, these changes may seem imposing, likely generating strong opposition and backlashes that could negatively impact the achievement of his goals.
Milei’s openness to information will enable him to consider various variables in decision-making. However, his tendency to overanalyze may impede his ability to respond swiftly in crises. His highly analytical style might also hinder effective communication, negatively affecting decision-making processes, particularly when clear policies and instructions are needed.
His high distrust could lead to conflictual relationships with other countries, resulting in decisions that create or escalate issues with other states. This distrust could escalate into paranoia, leading him to constantly question others’ intentions, including individuals, groups, or nations. Milei values loyalty among his team but may frequently change cabinet members and advisors if perceived as not aligning with his policies.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Javier Milei’s election as President of Argentina marks a significant political turn due to his libertarian stance and proposals for radical economic reform. His personality traits suggest he will be a hands-on leader, heavily involved in policy decisions, with a tendency to micromanage rather than delegate. His analytical nature could help him address complex issues but might also lead to overthinking and slow decision-making. Milei’s inherent distrust may cause tension in international relations and lead to an unpredictable foreign policy.
The outcome of Milei’s administration is crucial for the future political landscape in Latin America and beyond. If his model succeeds, similar leaders may emerge to adopt this narrative in future elections. A recent instance in Chile, where a prominent far-right party member announced a new “libertarian party,” exemplifies this trend. Observing Argentina’s trajectory in the next four years is vital, as it can illuminate the region’s future.
Consuelo Thiers is a Lecturer in International Relations at the University of Edinburgh. Her research interests include political psychology, foreign policy analysis, and the psychological assessment of political leaders. She also particularly interested in the foreign policies of the Southern Cone countries of Latin America. Her research has been published in Foreign Policy Analysis, International Studies Quarterly, International Studies Review, and the British Journal of Politics and International Relations.
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