Image Source: Sergio Flores/The Washington Post.
This article is based on research from a forthcoming Global Americans report, “Securing an Equitable Future for Vulnerable Groups in the Caribbean.”
When North Americans think of migration in the Caribbean it usually conjures images of bereft Haitians, Cubans, and Venezuelans seeking to escape severe problems at home, either departing from or transiting the region to find refuge and better opportunities in the United States or Canada. That is hardly the whole picture. While the Caribbean will remain a significant source of migration to North America, migration is growing within the region, which is pushing local governments to contend with new challenges with already stretched social systems and resources. Washington should be concerned about the ability of Caribbean countries to handle the challenge of migration, especially as pressures mount from regional political problems, poor job opportunities, and climate change.
The Caribbean has a long history of intraregional migration and outbound migration, which has created a considerable diaspora in the U.S., Canada, UK, and Europe. Large waves of people continue to use the Caribbean as a transit point to North America and Europe as well as moving from one part of the Caribbean to another. According to the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), in 2020 there were an estimated 859,400 intraregional and 745,700 extra-regional immigrants living in the Caribbean.
What is noteworthy in the IDB data is that the intraregional share of migrants rose from 46 percent in 2000 to 56 percent in 2020. The main recipient countries were the Dominican Republic, Barbados and the Bahamas. Haitians were overwhelmingly the biggest group of migrants across the region. Cubans also make up a sizeable number. One estimate puts the number of Cubans leaving their country over the past two years at more than one million, around 10 percent of the total population.
The largest group of external immigrants are Venezuelans, who have headed to Aruba, Curaçao, the Dominican Republic, Guyana, and Trinidad and Tobago. Other extra-regional immigrants include Chinese, North Americans, and Europeans.
The last looms large over the Caribbean. As the Migration Policy Institute’s Michelle Mittelstadt warned: “With climate change and natural disasters such as hurricanes and earthquakes representing important drivers of internal, intra-regional and extra-regional displacement, experts predict the frequency and impact of climate-related events are only likely to grow in the years ahead.” This was painfully evident in such events as the 2010 Haitian earthquake, Hurricane Maria (2017) which took out Puerto Rico’s power grid, and most recently Hurricane Oscar which delivered a major blow to Cuba’s creaky power system.
The above mix of natural disasters and destructive weather also underscores the challenges to those people in the Caribbean in vulnerable livelihoods, especially in agriculture and fishing. In the poorer Caribbean countries, more extreme hurricanes, droughts, and floods hurt agricultural production. Considering that many countries import food, any disruptions in locally grown food show up quickly in import bills. Moreover, external shocks like Covid-19, global supply chain disruptions, and transport costs only reinforce the impact of livelihood vulnerability. Similar problems face the fishing industry. The combination of overfishing by foreign fleets of ships, many of them from China, dying coral reefs, and heavy tourism, mainly large cruise ships, has hurt local Caribbean fishing.
According to the Caribbean Food Security and Livelihoods Survey, conducted by CARICOM, in collaboration with the United Nations World Food Programme, it is estimated that 3.7 million people are moderately or severely food insecure in the English-speaking Caribbean, equal to half the island group’s population. As people continue to confront challenges to earn a living and meet essential needs, the impact is the greatest on low-income families, youth and other vulnerable communities.
The challenges posed by migration and vulnerable livelihoods are likely to get worse. Venezuela has already produced close to 8 million migrants due to political upheaval, socio-economic instability, and an ongoing humanitarian crisis. The Maduro government’s stealing of the July 2024 presidential election has only heightened the sense of uncertainty and could trigger further waves of migrants, many of whom are likely to transit through the Caribbean. In the aftermath of the stolen election, the Venezuelans polling firm Meganalisis showed that 43 percent of the respondents said they were considering leaving their homeland.
Add to this Haiti’s ongoing crisis, which could force even more people to flee. Sadly, Haitians and Venezuelans make up some of the Caribbean’s most vulnerable communities.
The ability of the Caribbean to respond to migration from within the region and externally is also made more difficult due to the high level of debt carried by many governments, a pressing need to implement more sustainable infrastructure, and rising costs associated with the rising level of violent crime (fueled by the easy access to guns from the U.S.).
Migration is also hurting the Caribbean in another way – brain drain. While remittances from the U.S., Canada, and Europe are an important source of capital for many Caribbean countries, the loss of educated and skilled people reduces the talent pool of individuals needed to develop local economies and make them more resilient to climate change. It is causing a skills gap in such essential areas as education, health and information technology. According to the World Bank, between 24 percent and 58 percent (depending on the country of origin) of all emigrants located in the OECD countries are highly skilled workers. A sad commentary on this is that Caribbean educational systems are good enough to provide high levels of education, but their economies lack the dynamic needed to employ and retain such people.
While migration has been a major challenge to Caribbean governments, putting strains on social networks and contributing to violence, there has been a valuable learning process for local governments. In Trinidad and Tobago this has led to efforts to gain better control of entry requirements and information sharing on newly arrived people, an upgrading of the country’s asylum system, and improved access to education. As Raghunath Mahabir, a Lecturer and Coordinator of the National Security and Intelligence Program at the University of the Southern Caribbean, observed: “The Trinidad and Tobago government, while ensuring that they develop a vibrant migrant policy to deal with the migration influx in a humane way, must also develop policies and infrastructure to assist migrants in this special time of need.”
Migration from the Caribbean and through the region will continue to be a major challenge facing the region. This is a point of concern for the U.S., considering that most Caribbean people are heading toward its shores. There is a mutual interest in strengthening Caribbean capacities to create and implement economically and environmentally sound policies that encourage populations to seek opportunities at home, including better data collection, an updating of migration policies, and innovation with debt restructurings (green bonds). There is also a need to deepen the engagement of the Caribbean diaspora in regional development as well as push for greater regional economic integration. Although migration will remain part of the Caribbean’s landscape, more can be done to give people an incentive to enjoy their homes and not take the gamble to venture out to foreign shores.
Scott B. MacDonald is Chief Economist at Smith’s Research & Gradings, Senior Fellow at Global Americans, and Founding Member of the Caribbean Policy Consortium.
Global Americans takes pride in serving as a platform that offers in-depth analyses on various political, economic, environmental, and foreign affairs issues in the Western Hemisphere. The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Global Americans or anyone associated with it, and publication by Global Americans does not constitute an endorsement of all or any part of the views expressed.
