Image Source: Bloomberg.
On November 27, Chile held local elections for mayors, governors, municipal councils, and regional (state) councils. The results, characterized by significant gains by right-leaning candidates, have brought about a more balanced distribution of power between traditional parties. This outcome helps restore Chile’s longstanding moderate party system that was hard-hit by the 2019 social uprising. Even though the country’s overly centralized administration makes it difficult for local authorities to address key issues such as rising crime rates the election results represent an encouraging sign for the stability and moderation of Chile’s democracy.
The election outcome marks a notable departure from the 2021 local elections, when young left-wing candidates aligned with the Frente Amplio party, the Communist party, and smaller left-leaning movements, exceeded expectations. Riding the momentum of the social uprisings, these parties emerged as the left’s dominant force over the more centrist Socialismo Democrático The 2019 protests, followed by the left’s electoral success in 2020, were the harbinger of Boric’s victory later that year.
After facing sound defeats in three consecutive elections (including a constitutional referendum, a constituent assembly election, and the 2021 local elections), mainstream right-wing parties, grouped in the Chile Vamos coalition, suffered a strong challenge from the far-right Partido Republicano (or simply, Republicanos). Although Republicanos defeated Chile Vamos in the 2021 presidential elections and won a plurality of votes in a failed second attempt to draft a new constitution in 2023, the latest election results show that the mainstream right maintains its hegemony within conservative voters.
Four years after the last local election, the political landscape has shifted significantly. Voters have now favored more moderate political forces, while left-leaning parties have suffered significant losses compared to their 2021 results. Chile Vamos has recovered from its 2021 setbacks, surpassing Republicanos, and winning 26.5 percent of mayoral votes, 26.9 percent of regional council votes, and 28.2 percent of municipal council votes. Republicanos secured only 4.2 percent, 15.7 percent, and 13.8 percent, respectively. While these results are an improvement from upon their 2021 performance, Republicanos fell far short of their 35.4 percent showing in last year’s second constitutional assembly election. The combined left-wing forces—comprising Socialismo Democrático, Frente Amplio, the Communist Party, and other small left-leaning movements—captured 30.1 percent, 25.8 percent, and 39.1 percent across these contests. Most gubernatorial races will be determined in runoff elections scheduled for November 24.
Implications for the 2025 Presidential Elections
These results also reveal that traditional parties are more resilient than expected. Despite facing intense scrutiny since the mid-2000s, due to declining electoral support, poor approval ratings, and corruption scandals, these parties have successfully weathered challenges from emerging populist and non-aligned movements. This election is particularly significant due to record-breaking participation following the 2022 reinstatement of mandatory voting. Over 13 million voters casted their ballots—an unprecedented 85 percent turnout rate. While blank and void ballot percentages were substantial (17.7 percent for regional governors, 10.72 percent for mayors, 25.8 percent for regional councils, and 21.5 percent for municipal councils), there is no historical comparison available since this was the first municipal election held under reinstated mandatory voting.
The election results carry significant implications for Chile’s immediate political future. First, they will shape President Boric’s final year in office and influence the 2025 presidential race. The strong performance of Chile Vamos strengthens the presidential prospects of Evelyn Matthei, one of the coalition’s leading figures and a prominent contender from the mainstream right. The landscape is less defined among left-leaning parties, where no clear presidential frontrunner has emerged. However, Maipú’s young mayor, Tomás Vodanovic, who secured an impressive 70 percent of the votes (227,693), has emerged as a potential candidate.
The government also faces severe reputational challenges. Former Interior Undersecretary Manuel Monsalve is facing sexual assault accusations by one of his personal advisors. Making matters worse, Monsalve, who had oversight of the state’s security apparatus, allegedly abused his position by using intelligence and law enforcement resources to tamper with evidence and harass his accuser.
Local Elections and Policy Change
Changes in mayors and local legislations’ ideological composition could influence policy changes in crime prevention and prosecution. Chile currently faces a severe security crisis, marked by rising homicides, drug trafficking, and new criminal activities like targeted killings. Right-leaning governors, mayors, and councils may promote stricter law enforcement approaches and “mano dura” (iron fist) policies. However, these changes are unlikely to yield country-level results due to Chile’s highly centralized administrative apparatus, which severely limits local authorities’ policymaking powers. Local governments do not have control over law enforcement agencies and cannot modify tax rates, leaving mayors to rely on lobbying the central government for resources such as police stations, personnel, and infrastructure. Within these constraints, governors and regional and local councils retain some ability to redirect portions of their budgets toward public safety initiatives.
Relatedly, the ideological realignment at the local level could spur changes in economic policy. Although President Boric asserts that his government has restored stability following the pandemic, Chile’s economic performance under his leadership has been sluggish. The country’s financial situation has even deteriorated compared to before the 2019 social uprising. The election of pro-business mayors and regional councils could help unblock stalled investments by streamlining the complex permitting process (permisología) that currently creates multiple bottlenecks at both local and national levels.
It is too soon to predict whether the latest election results can be transferred into the 2025 general elections. For the moment, Chile Vamos has the upper hand, and they are well positioned to maintain this momentum, particularly since their left-wing opponents have yet to put forward a strong presidential candidate.
Maximiliano Véjares is a postdoctoral researcher at the Tecnológico de Monterrey. He is also a senior research associate at Johns Hopkins University’s Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab and a nonresident fellow at American University studying the environmental origins of political development, including democracy, state capacity, and the rule of law.
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