Image Source: The Guardian.
Last week, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro threatened a “bloodbath” and “civil war” if he did not win the July 28 elections. After this shocking declaration, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva issued a blunt response: “Maduro has to learn that when you win, you stay. When you lose, you leave.” The public rebuke from one of his most important regional supporters reflects the stark reality of this year’s election. By all measures, it is the regime’s most harrowing election in the past 25 years—if Maduro respects the results, it will almost certainly mean relinquishing power.
Independent polling has indicated that more than 80 percent of Venezuelans intend to vote in Sunday’s election, the highest participation rate in the country’s history. Edmundo González Urrutia, the opposition’s presidential candidate after leader María Corina Machado was banned from participating, is polling at least 20 points higher than Maduro in most surveys. Tens of thousands of Venezuelans continue to attend Machado’s rallies, and the regime has such little support that up to 10 million Venezuelans plan to flee the country if Maduro remains in power.
It is too late for Maduro to stop the election process or disqualify González. Either action would acknowledge regime weakness and agitate the millions of Venezuelans who intend to vote Maduro out of office. Alleged opposition electoral interference or growing military tensions with Guyana could serve as a pretext to postpone the election, but without a guaranteed election date, the result would likely be much the same: protests, riots, and a flood of emigration from the already beleaguered country.
Instead, Maduro has tried to subtly rig the election in his favor. The government has quietly changed the names of thousands of voting locations to confuse voters, loaded the ballot with 13 options for Maduro, blockaded Machado as she traveled to rallies, and punished venues for hosting her. Most notoriously, the Maduro regime has arrested dozens of campaign staff and banned Machado herself from contesting the election. Even so, with some help from the diaspora abroad, the opposition has rallied and remained unified in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds.
While outwardly, the ruling party still claims they see electoral victory on the horizon, internally they have begun to change tactics. Maduro has recently promoted dozens of military officers, spoke at a graduation ceremony for 25,000 new police officers, and granted his defense minister a new title, “General of the Sovereign People,” in an elaborate show of respect for the military. At the same time, the government has imported anti-riot equipment and imprisoned hundreds of disloyal military members. In the face of electoral loss, Maduro is preparing to contest results with force.
The military has repeatedly backed the regime despite external pressures, reducing expectations that it would defend the election results. Even so, rank-and-file soldiers are dissatisfied with the status quo, as the country’s high inflation has shrunk its total economy to roughly the size of a mid-sized city like Milwaukee. If the regime asks soldiers to respond to protests with force, it is possible that soldiers may simply refuse to obey, as happened in Egypt’s 2011 revolution.
The best hope for the opposition is that the fear of such an ousting may inspire Maduro and his inner circle to enter transitional negotiations. While González himself hasn’t made any promises about amnesty, Machado has made public assurances that she is willing to negotiate an exit for Maduro for the good of the country and its democratization. It is possible, though unlikely, that regime insiders could be convinced Maduro should step down now so the party can contest parliamentary elections in 2025.
Despite this, Maduro still enjoys incentives to remain in power and sees few options for a desirable exit. Even with amnesty in Venezuela, Maduro and military leaders still face U.S. drug trafficking charges. Fleeing to a non-extradition country may mean continued life under U.S. sanctions without the reliable trafficking income that has long served as the regime’s most sought-after reward.
In the end, onlookers and opposition supporters are filled with a sense of deep uncertainty. On the one hand, many are optimistic about what looks to be the opposition’s most decisive electoral win in decades. On the other hand, many fear the resulting crackdown will neuter the opposition for years to come. For now, fasten your seatbelts, as this flight will be turbulent and the landing uncertain. Fortunately for Venezuela, its democratic opposition has never had such good pilots and such a determined crew.
Carl Meacham is the President & CEO of Global Americans. He was Senator Richard Lugar’s senior staffer for Latin America on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Director of the Americas Program at CSIS, and held senior roles at Uber, PhRMA, and FTI Consulting.
Scott Brasesco is Senior Director at Global Americans, where he leads programs on U.S. Latin America Policy and Identity and Vulnerable Communities. He also served as Project Manager for the 2022 book Autocracy Rising: How Venezuela Transitioned to Authoritarianism by Venezuela specialist Javier Corrales.
