Dr. Evan Ellis is interviewed by the John Nagl of the Foreign Policy Research Institute about the expected impact of COVID-19 on the dynamics of the region.
Latin American governments beset by fiscal, economic and social crises will be tempted to accept bailouts and loan-based projects disproportionately benefitting Chinese companies that they would not have previously considered. The resurgence of the Latin American political left, already seen in Argentina and Bolivia, and the entrenchment of the Maduro regime in Venezuela, possibly bolstered by leftist victories in elections in Ecuador in February and Peru in April 2021, will further broaden China’s opportunities.
[Video] The Foreign Policy Research Institute hosts Dr. Evan Ellis for a discussion of U.S. policy towards Latin America. As the Biden administration prepares to take charge, they will inherit a challenging situation in the region.
System dynamics involves the representation and analysis of chains of causal relationships between physical, political, social, and commercial interactions that may help to understand how a number of complex forces will affect Latin America during 2021.
As Peru wrestles with political turmoil and seeks to recover from the economic and financial effects of the pandemic, China appears well-poised to significantly expand its commercial presence and associated political influence in the country.
Peru’s security challenges vary from expanding coca production, illegal mining and timber activities, to a small but persistent terrorist threat, an emerging new criminal hub in the tri-national frontier with Brazil and Colombia, and rising public insecurity in the context of the health and socioeconomic crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The strategic position of the Caribbean as the southeastern maritime border of the United States and its link to U.S. commercial and security priorities gives Washington an interest in containing Chinese influence in the Caribbean. All of this potential engagement, however, could be jeopardized should Caribbean governments continue ramping up their security relationship with China.
The Peruvian Congress is set to debate whether to again try to impeach President Martin Vizcarra, just over a month after he survived a first impeachment trial. This time, a group of lawmakers accused the president of accepting a bribe of USD $637,000 from two companies that were later awarded public contracts during Vizcarra’s tenure as governor of Moquegua.
Looking to a post-COVID-19 future, Chinese and Brazilian economic ties will likely grow stronger. The United States and other Brazilian trade partners will need to think creatively to offer alternatives that remain competitive.
Several factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, have contributed to the possible return of populism in Bolivia. What implications does this have for the Latin America and the country’s relations with the United States?
