A Watershed Moment for Guatemala’s Democracy? Part 2
Guatemala’s 2023 electoral process will most likely dodge a bullet, and the presidential runoff election between Bernardo Arévalo of SEMILLA (Movimiento Semilla) and Sandra Torres of UNE (Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza) will take place on August 20, 2023. The runoff campaign itself will be highly polarized, and in the broader picture, there are huge challenges ahead for governability in the short-run and for Guatemala’s democracy in the long-run.
Security Implications of The China-Cuba Alliance
After the Cold War, Cuba and China developed a strong and comprehensive alliance. Today, their collaboration is two-fold. Firstly, the economically-dependent Cuba helps China advance its myriad of interests in Latin America and the Caribbean. Secondly, the alliance meets China’s strategic needs in two broad areas: military-intelligence and biotechnology/neurosciences.
The Feud Between Arce and Morales Could Spell Danger for Bolivia’s Left
Why are these powerful men covering their mudslinging with staged events and awkward smiles? Because both are jockeying to run for president in 2025. And the longer their competition drags on, the greater the opportunity for MAS’ opposition on the right.
The Fiftieth Anniversary of Chile’s Coup Touches a Sore Nerve
A Watershed Moment for Guatemala’s Democracy? Part 1
When Guatemalans went to the polls on election day on June 25, 2023, the electoral process itself had been questioned nationally and internationally because of the exclusion of three presidential candidates… However, turnout was not the biggest surprise on election day. More remarkable were the choices made by Guatemalan voters, which stunned the Guatemalan political establishment as well as domestic and international observers.
Russia’s Latin American Policy and the June 2023 Rebellion
Russia underwent considerable political upheaval in late June 2023 as the Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group briefly threatened President Vladimir Putin’s hold on power… Russian relations between Russia and Latin America are a marriage of convenience. Both sides need and want a diversified set of trade relations, share an interest in advancing some type of multipolar global order, and have a complicated relationship with the United States.
Orwell’s Shadow? Chile’s Disinformation Commission Sparks Suspicion
Last September, Chileans voted overwhelmingly to reject a draft constitution that would have turbocharged President Gabriel Boric’s progressive agenda. Boric’s leftist allies blamed “fake news” for misleading the electorate. Ahead of another constitutional referendum this December, the government quietly published a decree to establish an Advisory Commission Against Disinformation. The initiative has sparked deep unease among free speech advocates and an outcry from Boric’s political opponents.
Let It Be: A Great Song, but an Ineffective Policy Approach
China’s expanding presence, particularly in South America, raises concerns as China strengthens ties and influence through financial dependence, investments in critical minerals, vaccine diplomacy (especially during the COVID-19 pandemic), and cultural propaganda. By strategically increasing its involvement, China could hinder the United States’ ability to project influence in the region.
As the Petro Administration Stumbles, the Far-Right Prepares
Colombian President Gustavo Petro will likely pave the way for a far-right administration in the same way that Iván Duque paved the way for Petro’s own rise to power. He does not seem to know it yet, and Petro does not seem to be acting like a far-right candidacy is realistic right now. Petro ought to understand that both the short- and long-term future of Colombia’s left wing depends on his success.
Much Ado About Nothing: Accurately Assessing Lula’s Recent International Overtures
In a global economy shaped by inflationary trends, energy shortages, and market instability, Lula’s domestic success will depend to a significant degree on his international achievements. While Bolsonaro obscured the relevance of country in the global arena, Lula expanded Brazil’s presence in the early 2000s by enlarging the list of economic partner and diversifying strategic partnerships, particularly in the global South.