Source: Reuters.
March 30, 2023, was a busy day for political leaders embodying authoritarian values in both North and South America. Early in the morning, former President Jair Bolsonaro arrived in Brasilia after a three-month-long sojourn in Florida. Later in the day, a Manhattan Grand Jury decided to indict former President Donald Trump in connection with his alleged role in a hush money payment scheme and cover-up involving an adult film star. Although both events indicate that the two most important representatives of recent extreme right-wing demagoguery in the America’s largest democracies face challenges, it is too early to assume that the broader support for authoritarian notions, rhetoric, and style is in retreat.
Though fewer than expected, several supporters of Brazil’s former president rushed to Brasilia’s international airport to see their leader—welcoming him back to what they see as a fight for the survival of an extreme right-wing agenda in Latin America’s largest nation. Back in the United States, the indictment of Trump took place in New York City on April 4. This is a historical event, given that it was the first time a former president was the focus of a criminal investigation amounting to a judicial proceeding. At first, Trump attempted to mobilize his supporters against such an outcome a few weeks ago. But his preparations were demobilized since last week as news came out that the Grand Jury would only make a decision later in the month. Although Trump was caught off guard, the legal procedures unfolded peacefully. Nevertheless, it is important to point out that Trump and Bolsonaro’s core supporters tried to subvert the peaceful transition of power by attacking the National Congress of both the United States and Brazil on January 6, 2021, and January 8, 2023, respectively.
While it is unclear whether Trump or Bolsonaro will be major candidates in the next elections in their countries, it is nonetheless evident that important segments in both nations are interested, willing, and ready to carry out the authoritarian agenda put in motion by each leader. In his reelection bid, Trump received more votes than in 2016. It was only due to a major effort from a broad anti-Trump coalition that the real-estate mogul was defeated. For his part, Bolsonaro lost in Brazil’s the runoff elections and only by a narrow margin. It is likely that no other candidate than former President Lula—still deeply popular among lower socio-economic groups—could have defeated Bolsonaro. Moreover, it is highly probable that were it not for the dramatic impacts of COVID-19 in both countries even more people would have voted for them, paving the way for their continuation in power.
Beyond the remaining widespread social support that Trump and Bolsonaro manage to hold, other politicians are ready to fill in the role of an authoritarian demagogue and carry on their anti-democratic, right-wing political agenda. For instance, Florida’s recently reelected conservative governor, Ron DeSantis, is rising in popularity within the Republican party. In Brazil, Bolsonaro’s sons and wife Michelle seem ready to carry out the reactionary positions and populist style of the former president. It is always hard to predict whether the charisma held by a politician can transfer to another one. In the United States, there is a possibility that Trump will become the nominee of the Republican party, creating a rematch of the 2020 elections. However, the most dramatic element in all of this is not that overtly authoritarian leaders have become increasingly appealing in the Western Hemisphere’s largest democracies. Rather, it is the fact that the hostile positions they have espoused and aggressively promoted have gained ground in society. Trump consistently attacked the media, especially when the news criticized him. Bolsonaro rallied his supporters with chants to close Brazil’s Congress and Supreme Court.
Despite the fact that each country has its own unique political history and that Brazilian democracy is much less consolidated than in the United States, it is clear that both nations normalized an anti-establishment, xenophobic, and violent rhetoric in recent years. This has directly affected their policies, including the dangerous notion that political opponents are to be seen as enemies—that can even be eliminated, if necessary.
Aspiring radical politicians now emulate this discourse in order to gain traction among increasingly rowdy and, at times, violent crowds. On the other hand, Biden and Lula’s recent victories indicate that there are significant levels of mobilization to defend the democracy in each country. Both leaders stated in a recent meeting in Washington, DC, that they want to work together to defend and restore democracy in their respective nations. However, strengthening democratic institutions will take more than curtailing aggressive political rhetoric.
What happened during Trump and Bolsonaro’s tenures must be remembered as unusual cases, not as new paths their countries want to pursue. For this to happen, however, democratic forces must make a convincing case for protecting liberal democracy. Extreme populism hollows out democratic principles from within—often by winning elections and then, once in power, actively eroding democratic institutions culture. This was clearly the case with Trump and Bolsonaro. Even though they are now outside of the formal institutions of power, their nefarious influence will be a continuing challenge for the time being.
Rafael R. Ioris, Professor of Latin American History and Politics at the University of Denver.
