Dominican Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit speaks with supporters. Source: Loop News.
Located in the Eastern Caribbean and with a population of 72,000 people, the Commonwealth of Dominica enjoys seemingly strong democratic credentials. However, in recent years, the ruling and dominant Democratic Labour Party’s (DLP) delay in passing comprehensive electoral reforms has fueled opposition concerns about the government’s electoral management—casting doubts on the quality of the island-state’s democracy. Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s November decision to announce a December 6 snap vote—two years before mandated by the constitution—and without an electoral reform in place, prompted such criticism. As a result, in an act of protest, the United Workers Party (UWP) together with Dominica Freedom Party (DFP)—the two main opposition parties—decided to boycott the election.
From the DLP’s perspective, it was a good time to call the election, considering the government is presiding over a strong economic recovery from a pandemic-induced economic downturn in 2020 and the UWP is undergoing a leadership change. With the absence of the UWP and DFP, the only opposition party left standing was Team Unity Dominica (TUD), a new political movement with little parliamentary experience. As expected, PM Skerritt easily won his sixth re-election, with the DPL claiming roughly 83 percent of the vote and 19 out of the 21 seats at stake—with six uncontested seats favoring incumbent-DLP members. TUD failed to win any seats and received less than 1 percent of the vote. The two remaining seats were won by independent candidates.
The 2022 elections were generally peaceful, despite concerns that there would be a repeat of the protests that marked the 2019 vote—where UWP supporters set up roadblocks, stopped traffic to the airport, and alleged that the DLP government had provided airplane tickets to bring in overseas Dominicans to vote. In the same contest, the Concerned Citizens’ Movement, also protested and asked the country’s High Court to postpone the vote—citing a lack of promised electoral reforms. Dominica’s High Court eventually turned down the request.
Is democracy backsliding in Dominica?
Questions about the fairness of the electoral process are not new in Dominica. The UWP—in the opposition since 2000—has been denouncing electoral irregularities ever since Prime Minister Skerrit won his first election as head of government in 2005. Edison James, the opposition leader and head of the UWP at the time, decided—without success—to challenge the results and call for new elections. Many of the same complaints over voting irregularities reemerged in successive elections in 2009, 2014, and 2019.
Although post-election reports from the Organization of American States’ (OAS) and the Caribbean Community’s (CARICOM) electoral observation missions have often praised Dominica’s democratic commitment, they have also been consistently pointed to a series of unresolved electoral questions for the government to address to increase overall transparency and fairness. Of these, the most pressing and concerning remain: the lack of voter identification cards, inaccuracies in the voter registry, the absence of a central digital result receiving center, the lack of campaign finance legislation, the lack of standardized criteria to count votes, as well as the disparity between constituency populations and imbalances in political representation. The same concerns were raised again in late 2019 by a joint CARICOM-Commonwealth-OAS special mission on electoral reform. In addition, observers point to clientelism practices as a major concern.
Reflecting some of the concerns with voting irregularities, the UWP took the DLP government to the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) in the aftermath of the 2014 elections, claiming that the ruling party had engaged in “treating.” According to the CCJ, treating is defined “to directly or indirectly providing food, drink or entertainment to a person, during or after an election with the aim of corruptly influencing that person’s vote.” In March 2021, the CCJ decided several DLP members, including Prime Minister Skerrit, engaged in treating. Despite the decision, DLP members of parliament remained in their seats.
Corruption allegations have also intensified. According to Freedom House, the DLP has been less than forthcoming on public finance information, as well as with some controversial and profitable governmental programs such as the Citizenship by Investment (CBI)—a program created in 1993 to attract international direct investments in exchange for citizenship. Indeed, the U.S. State Department warned in its 2021 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report the Dominican authorities often grant citizenship even if they uncover adverse information during the vetting process. In addition, media reports have suggested that Prime Minister Skerrit and other political figures have received money and campaign contributions from foreign individuals in exchange for diplomatic passports. Among them, Iranian businessman Alireza Zibahalat Monfared, alleged funding of Prime Minister Skerrit’s 2014 political campaign in exchange for a posting as Dominica’s Ambassador to Malaysia, stands out.
Dominica under Prime Minister Skerrit’s sixth term in office?
With his landslide victory, Skerrit will become the first Prime Minister in the English-speaking Caribbean to serve six consecutive terms. The DLP’s re-election could mean a moderately pro-Chinese tilt in foreign policy and a continuation of government policies of using the CBI program to generate revenues, seeking ways to finance infrastructure development related to sustainability and climate resiliency. These include the construction of a new international airport, roads, housing, resilient water and sewage networks, and an industrial park to support the development of agricultural processing and schools.
In addition, the government is likely to keep investing and developing its tourism sector. Dominica, also known for its volcanoes and sweeping mountain vistas, is casting itself as an eco-tourist destination. The tourism push is being driven by the need to diversify and buffer the economy from external factors—whose effects were painfully evident in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria in 2017 and during the pandemic—with the latter causing an 11 percent contraction in real GDP in 2020. The pandemic also led to ongoing elevated levels of fiscal spending with higher levels of government debt, which hit 114.5 percent of GDP in 2020. The economy saw a rebound in 2021, with 4.8 percent real GDP expansion and real GDP growth in 2022 estimated at 6.0 percent. Although the economy is in recovery mode, it has yet to return to its 2019 levels.
Despite Prime Minister Skerrit’s announcement that this will be his final term in office, as long as electoral reform remains elusive, fears over the quality of Dominica’s democracy will likely continue and could potentially result in increased international pressure from regional actors. While there is little doubt that Prime Minister Skerrit remains a popular figure in his country, questions remain about whether the DLP prefers playing electoral politics with rules stacked in its favor. If Dominican political actors do not engage in a serious discussion to modernize its electoral process, protests and electoral boycotts represent possible destabilization factors.
Scott B. MacDonald is Chief Economist at Smith’s Research & Gradings, Research Fellow at Global Americans, and Founding Member of the Caribbean Policy Consortium. His latest book, The New Cold War, China and the Caribbean, was recently published by Palgrave Macmillan.
Alejandro Trenchi is a Research Assistant at Global Americans for the organization’s High-Level Working Group on Climate Change in the Caribbean.
