If most poll workers were surprised and frustrated by the results imagine how pollsters felt November 9. Everyone thought she would win. Even the morning of the election, The Upshot from The New York Times gave Donald Trump a slim 15 percent chance of beating the Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton.
So why did most pollsters get it so wrong? We need to understand that polls work with a margin of error. The truth is the miscalculation at the national level wasn’t that large. Perhaps the problem was the constant reassurance that Hillary would win that may have given people in states like Wisconsin a false sense of confidence to vote their conscience and support a third-party candidate. Perhaps, pollsters also underestimated the closet-Trump voter who preferred not to openly communicate his or her preferences.
Whatever the reason, after Brexit, the Colombian peace referendum and the U.S. election, this year’s lesson to all pollsters, the media and to voters is that the final shots aren’t fired until election day, and that despite what the polls say, your individual vote does matter.
Cartoon credit: Dave Granlund, Politicalcartoons.com, Caglecartoons.com
