Cómo las sanciones contribuyeron al colapso económico de Venezuela
Uno pensaría que cualquier análisis de la contracción económica de Venezuela colocaría las sanciones económicas en un papel central.
Uno pensaría que cualquier análisis de la contracción económica de Venezuela colocaría las sanciones económicas en un papel central.
One would think it should be self-evident that any account of Venezuela’s economic contraction would place economic sanctions in a central role.
After nine years in power, Maduro’s legacy in foreign policy can be seen as a mixed bag of wins and setbacks for the government. Maduro’s wins in foreign policy have largely allowed him to stay in power even as the majority of his country wishes him removed from power.
Juan Guaidó’s swearing in as interim president on January 23, 2019 and his recognition by more than 50 countries as Venezuela’s legitimate president has consolidated him as the leader of the opposition. But real power remains elusive for the young leader. What must happen to finally trigger change in Venezuela?
As the standoff continues without much sign of a plan B from the White House, the Maduro government is threatening to arrest President Juan Guaidó. It’s time for the other members of the 50-plus international coalition to put some muscle into the game.
The use of military force to bring about regime change in Latin America would set U.S.-Latin American relations back decades. The U.S. needs to follow a more pragmatic and ultimately productive approach.
Putting Venezuela back together again will mean that weak or non-existent institutions in government, law, business, and civil society will need to emerge. International coordination will be key.
U.S. decision makers must not let frustration or enthusiasm distract them from the importance of the Venezuelan people and the constitution. Any role for the U.S. military must be a limited, supporting one at most.
Maduro’s long-term survival is no longer feasible, but the timeline for his departure and a subsequent democratic transition is still far from certain. Here are three possible scenarios.
The events of January 23 were a victory for the once divided and dispirited Venezuelan opposition. But with Maduro so far refusing to step aside and a rogues’ gallery of governments lining up to support him, could the U.S. have stumbled into an international showdown?