Image Source: World Politics Review.
After three decades at the core of Bolivian politics—as a coca growers’ leader, a congressman, head of state, and party leader—Evo Morales now faces his most challenging days. The authoritarian leftist leader, known for his staunchly anti-American and anti-capitalist rhetoric, has suffered serious setbacks in recent months. First, he was accused of statutory rape in Bolivian and Argentinian courts, where he took refuge briefly in 2020. Second, the roadblocks he organized in October backfired, harming his popularity and yielding no concessions from the government. Third, a judicial ruling has permanently disqualified him from seeking the presidency. Finally, a recent ruling dealt a decisive blow to Morales’ leadership over MAS, the party he co-founded in 1997 with Indigenous and leftist leaders. The decision effectively ended his political aspirations, at least for now.
President Luis Arce, Morales’s former ally and now one of his fiercest rivals, is accused of pushing for this judicial outcome against Morales. Once close allies, the two are now bitter enemies. Yet Arce, himself severely weakened, has managed to resolve none of Bolivia’s economic troubles, many of which stem from his own policies as finance minister under Morales. With 94 percent of the population saying the country is on the wrong track, Arce’s prospects for the 2025 election are practically nil.
Thus, the leftist experiment in Bolivia nears its end after almost two decades.
Rising Tensions
The conflict between Arce and Morales has brought Bolivia to a boiling point. October witnessed serious incidents, including a road blockade severing transport among the three main cities, indiscriminate use of dynamite against anti-riot police, and the brief capture of military posts. Morales organized these blockades to pressure authorities to reverse his disqualification and to dismiss his current charges. However, when neither goal was achieved, and with key roads cleared by police, he was forced to abandon the protests.
Morales ruled Bolivia for 14 years with an iron hand – the longest presidency in the country’s history – and enjoyed broad popularity both domestically and among progressive circles worldwide. However, allegations of fraud in the 2019 elections led to mass protests, ultimately forcing his resignation and flight – first to Mexico, then to Argentina. Morales’s MAS party, buoyed by the failings of a short-lived interim government and the devastating economic impact of the pandemic, returned to power with Arce, who had served Morales for 12 years as finance minister. But Morales’s attempts to dominate Arce’s government soon led to intense conflict, turning allies into adversaries.
An Opening for the Opposition
The vulnerability of both Arce and Morales presents new opportunities for Bolivia’s liberal and conservative opposition, with a realistic shot at victory in the 2025 elections after two decades on the sidelines. Since January 2006, under MAS leadership, Bolivia has adopted nationalist and state-controlled policies, driving away both domestic and foreign private investment, persecuting political opposition, and aligning itself with anti-Western countries like Russia, China, and Iran. Recently, Bolivia was accepted as a member of BRICS. Now, with MAS infighting, Bolivia could be positioned to depart from Latin America’s Socialist bloc of the 21st Century, leaving only Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba.
Yet, a government succeeding MAS would face daunting challenges: an economy in disarray, with poverty levels akin to those of the early ’90s, a black-market dollar exchange rate 50 percent higher than the official one, restricted access to dollar savings, and a shift from hydrocarbon exporter to net importer. Fuel subsidies make Bolivian gasoline prices about a third of those in neighboring countries, while domestic production has plummeted, and the environmental crisis is severe, with one of the world’s highest deforestation rates.
The chronic lack of state revenue has led to a persistent fuel shortage for over a year, resulting in long queues for gasoline and diesel as the government struggles to import enough supply. Some analysts argue that the new administration’s first steps should include devaluing the boliviano and raising fuel prices—challenging decisions likely to spark widespread protests, given Bolivia’s long tradition of public uprisings.
Despite the hurdles, the MAS crisis and Morales’s waning popularity hint at a possible political shift, one that could strengthen Bolivia’s battered democracy, pave the way for judicial reform, and address urgent environmental issues.
Raúl Peñaranda U. is a Bolivian journalist, director of the news site Brújula Digital, and a recipient of Columbia University’s Cabot Prize.
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