Mexican Oil, Cuba and Trump 2.0
While AMLO was able to get away with little consequence in his support of Cuba, Sheinbaum’s Mexico could pay for it.
While AMLO was able to get away with little consequence in his support of Cuba, Sheinbaum’s Mexico could pay for it.
The Caribbean is signalling that, with an eye to multilateral diplomacy and its new reality, United Nations Security Council reform is a top priority.
While policy clashes between the elected governments of Mexico and the United States in the coming years appear likely, the degree to which those tensions degrade the commercial relationship and security cooperation that is vital to both will depend on the forbearance and statesmanship of leaders on each side.
While the country’s democratic institutions and rule of law remain robust and resilient, it would be misleading to believe that Uruguay is immune to the political instability and polarization rampant throughout the region.
Despite the hurdles, the MAS crisis and Morales’s waning popularity hint at a possible political shift, one that could strengthen Bolivia’s battered democracy, pave the way for judicial reform, and address urgent environmental issues.
The paradoxical thing about Trump’s victory is that though Republicans likely won because of the importance of the economy and voters’ perception of the Democrats’ mishandling of it, Trump’s agenda based on lower taxes, higher tariffs and migrant deportations threatens to derail the recovery.
With the Morena party capture and dismantling of Mexico’s institutional structure, it is often declared that the country has reverted to the one-party system that dominated its politics for most of the 20th century. Yet, this interpretation is both a misreading of history and an inaccurate analogy.
Four years after the last local election, the political landscape has shifted significantly. Voters have now favored more moderate political forces, while left-leaning parties have suffered significant losses compared to their 2021 results.
While AMLO’s legacy of centralized power and ambitious social spending provides Sheinbaum with a strong political foundation, her maneuverability is limited by fiscal constraints and a need to foster economic growth.
Washington should be concerned about the ability of Caribbean countries to handle the challenge of migration, especially as pressures mount from regional political problems, poor job opportunities, and climate change.