Despite ongoing mass mobilizations, Venezuela will likely remain in flux for the foreseeable future. Backed by powerful external (illiberal) allies, the Maduro regime doesn’t have to play by the rules.
As the standoff continues without much sign of a plan B from the White House, the Maduro government is threatening to arrest President Juan Guaidó. It’s time for the other members of the 50-plus international coalition to put some muscle into the game.
Juan Guaidó, who only a month ago was little known on the international scene, has positioned himself as the leader of a generation of service-oriented young Venezuelans who today represent the best option for unleashing a democratic transition in the country.
In confronting an autocrat intent on remaining in power, empty dialogue only prolongs the agony of the Venezuelan people. Will the Montevideo Mechanism continue this failed policy?
Putting Venezuela back together again will mean that weak or non-existent institutions in government, law, business, and civil society will need to emerge. International coordination will be key.
U.S. decision makers must not let frustration or enthusiasm distract them from the importance of the Venezuelan people and the constitution. Any role for the U.S. military must be a limited, supporting one at most.
Maduro’s long-term survival is no longer feasible, but the timeline for his departure and a subsequent democratic transition is still far from certain. Here are three possible scenarios.
In the fourth episode of two gringos with questions, your hosts Chris and Ken talk to Francisco Rodriguez, Managing Director and Chief Economist of Torino Economics on Latin America’s 2019 economic forecast, Venezuela’s economic situation, and the case for not boycotting Venezuelan elections.
The events of January 23 were a victory for the once divided and dispirited Venezuelan opposition. But with Maduro so far refusing to step aside and a rogues’ gallery of governments lining up to support him, could the U.S. have stumbled into an international showdown?
Venezuela continues to be mired in the worst economic and humanitarian crisis in Latin America’s recent history. With Maduro beginning a second term, prospects for a way out are uncertain. But two events have pointed to a potential for change.
