Mexican Oil, Cuba and Trump 2.0
While AMLO was able to get away with little consequence in his support of Cuba, Sheinbaum’s Mexico could pay for it.
While AMLO was able to get away with little consequence in his support of Cuba, Sheinbaum’s Mexico could pay for it.
While policy clashes between the elected governments of Mexico and the United States in the coming years appear likely, the degree to which those tensions degrade the commercial relationship and security cooperation that is vital to both will depend on the forbearance and statesmanship of leaders on each side.
With the Morena party capture and dismantling of Mexico’s institutional structure, it is often declared that the country has reverted to the one-party system that dominated its politics for most of the 20th century. Yet, this interpretation is both a misreading of history and an inaccurate analogy.
While AMLO’s legacy of centralized power and ambitious social spending provides Sheinbaum with a strong political foundation, her maneuverability is limited by fiscal constraints and a need to foster economic growth.
Sheinbaum can either lead Mexico on the road to autocracy, or she can dial back her predecessor’s agenda, employing restraint in the exercise of power and allowing for the gradual restoration of checks and balances to ensure the prevalence of the rule of law.
Esta entrevista se llevó a cabo el 1º de agosto de 2024, entre la Dra. Vania Pérez Morales, integrante del Comité de Participación Ciudadana (CPC) del Sistema Nacional Anticorrupción (SNA) de México, y el Mtro. Jeffrey Zinsmeister, fellow de Global Americans.
MORENA has developed fractures that may portend a coming schism. Indeed, the chances of a major rupture in the party during a Sheinbaum administration appear significant.
Is the Biden administration, despite its legal posturing, content to abdicate some of its responsibilities on the ground and let Operation Lone Star take over?
Should Noboa be successful, we are likely to see more such leaderships emerge in the region, and a public willing to sacrifice some liberties in favor of a sense of increased security.
Mexico’s foreign policy’s recurrent ignominies and blunders are not the result of an incompetent strategy or a mistake, but rather a series of tantrums lacking any direction or purpose.