Short of a political solution and an economic overhaul, largescale Venezuelan migration probably will continue to loom large over the Americas for years to come.
By all measures, it is the regime’s most harrowing election in the past 25 years—if Maduro respects the results, it will almost certainly mean relinquishing power.
Though the agreement nominally gave the regime a fair chance at winning the election by lifting sanctions and boosting the economy, a fair chance was not good enough for Maduro when electoral loss could mean the rest of his life behind bars.
The downgrading of electoral expectations and standards reflects the changing nature of elected autocratic regimes.
The inability of the U.S. to facilitate a return to democracy in Venezuela does not justify accommodating dictatorship in the name of engagement.
The territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region is a conflict that stretches back centuries, with its roots in the colonial era but with implications that extend to the present day.
The world should not dismiss aggression as impossible. Deterrence against a low-probability threat is cheaper than responding once aggression has begun.
Though the payoff may not be immediate, U.S. policymakers and the international community should continue to support measures, such as the recent sanctions-relief policy, that increase the odds of fostering Maduro’s worst fear: division and uncertainty within the regime.
The lessons from Guatemala echo loudly: even if free and fair elections are held, a transition of power is not a straightforward process. The international community’s role in facilitating an effective transition in Venezuela becomes paramount.
Hasta que no exista una restauración republicana y democrática, no habrá una reactivación económica que ponga a Venezuela de nuevo en el sendero del desarrollo y le permita a Colombia contar con un socio comercial dinámico.
